Hello Traders,
It’s been a while since our last weekend review, I hope everyone has been trading well. The S&P 500 continues to surf all-time highs, though things are feeling a bit lofty up here. While the uptrend remains intact, there are signs the market may need to pause or pull back to find new buyers and liquidity.
Key Observations:
Volatility: Both the VIX and relative volume (rVol) have been notably low, hovering around 50% of typical daily volume. This suggests the market could grind slightly higher but also points to potential exhaustion.
Imbalances: Despite the strong rally, there are several major imbalances below that remain unrepaired. We’ll be watching for potential corrections if selling pressure intensifies.
Critical Levels to Watch:
Upside Targets:
6127.25 (Weekly Imbalance Target)
No value area was established near last week’s TPO high, leaving a large weekly imbalance. This remains an upside magnet, though there’s no set timeline for when it needs to be repaired.
Resistance Levels:
6106.50 (Untested 4-Hour Level)
This level must be reclaimed for bulls to target the weekly imbalance at 6127.25.
6098.75 (Daily Level)
Failure to sustain above this level weakens the bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.
Support Levels:
6085 (ETH Daily + 4-Hour Support)
This is the first critical support zone, though the 4-hour chart shows some weakening. If this fails, expect a move toward the next support cluster.
6063 – 6058 (Key Support Cluster)
This area includes multiple low-volume nodes and technical supports. Failure here could accelerate selling pressure.
6042 (Double Daily + Weekly Level)
A major untested support zone, offering a strong potential bounce area. I like this level due to its multiple confluences across timeframes.
6026.50 (Untested Weekly Level)
This is another important zone to watch. If this level fails, expect significant downside momentum.
Key Takeaways:
Bullish Case: As long as price stays above 6085, momentum remains with the bulls. A break above 6106.50 could trigger a push toward the 6127.25 imbalance target.
Bearish Case: A failure to reclaim 6098.75 and 6106.50 will keep pressure on bulls. Breaks below 6085 and 6042 would open the door to much deeper corrections.
I’ve included a detailed video breakdown and cheat sheets for closer reference. Be safe, stay patient, and together, we’ll conquer these markets!
Cheers,
Ryan Bailey
VICI Trading Solutions
CHEAT SHEETS
WK/DAY TPO
4HR
1HR
VIX DAILY
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