🧠The Setup
We’re sitting just under new all-time highs, with ES trading around 6300.00, and the market continues to reward patience and structure. Bulls have full control, but after such an extended run, it’s critical we focus on the right pullback zones—the ones that offer edge, structure, and strong reward-to-risk.
In this week’s breakdown, I go deep into the area I’m stalking most closely: the 6154.00–6143.75 zone. This is where I believe we could get a clean reaction that fills the gap, reclaims structure, and ignites the next leg up. Combined with the broader bullish context and continuous contract clarity, this week is all about waiting for price to come to us.
Let’s break it all down.
🔼 Overhead Resistance
6323.50 – Only near-term resistance. A daily level tested during the holiday session but still actionable. Break above here and we enter blue-sky territory.
🔽 Primary Support Zones (Buy Zones to Monitor)
🔹 ⚡ High Priority Pullback Zone – Structure + Squeeze Setup
6154.00 → 6143.75
6154.00 – Untested daily
6149.25 – Key daily level from the February push
6147.25 – Naked POC
6143.75 – Weekly level
6160.75 – Full singles fill on the weekly
→ Why it matters:
This zone fills the last market inefficiency left in the recent move up. If price trades down into this area and reclaims 6166.50 (the previous February ATH), we could see a massive squeeze straight back to 6220.75 and possibly new all-time highs.
→ Plan:
If price holds anywhere between 6154.00 and 6143.75 and shows strong reaction + reclaim of 6166.50, I’m looking for a swing long with targets at 6220.75 → 6270.00+.
🔹 Secondary Buy Zone (Top of Structure)
6248.00 → 6240.00
6248.00 – Daily level + 4H POC
6245.00 – Untested 4H level
6240.00 – Weekly POC
→ Plan: If we pull into this zone and base above 6248.00, this remains a great area to initiate long positions with clear invalidation. Target back toward 6323.50.
🔹 Failed Breakdown (FBD) Watch
6220.75 → 6224.00
6220.75 – 4H support
6224.00 – Reclaim trigger
→ Plan: If price breaks below 6220.75 and then reclaims 6224.00 with strength, we could see a fast push back to 6245.00+. Watch for confirmation over 6234.00 to enter.
🔹 Deep Pullback / Swing Long Zone
6098.00 → 6045.00
6143.00 → 6129.00 – Weekly zone
6122.00 – Untested daily
6098.00 – 6093.00 – Prior ATH zone and Major Weekly Daily Area
6061.00 – 6045.00 – Major 2-month composite support
→ Plan: Only in play on major pullbacks. If we flush and reclaim 6166.50, this becomes the strongest swing long zone of the summer.
🧠Final Thoughts
This isn’t the week to force trades or short strength blindly. But if we get that pullback into the 6154.00 – 6143.75 area, and especially if it fills out the inefficiency to 6160.75 and reclaims 6166.50, I’m stepping in with size. That is the cleanest setup I see this week. Pulling back this far could be a pipe dream however so in the mean time we will focus on the 6240-45 area and assume they will hold the 4hr leg until we see evidence otherwise.
The plan: Be patient. Wait for structure. React to price. Then press when it confirms.
Until next time — trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets.
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions
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