After a week of geopolitical drama and volatility sparked by tensions in the Middle East, the ES Futures held strong — proving once again that price action trumps headlines. Despite chatter of war, institutional panic, and the chaos that often comes with contract rollover week, the chart continues to print bullish structure.
This week’s review dives deep into the U contract, which I’ve officially rolled to. It's worth noting that some previously mentioned levels may have adjusted slightly due to the rollover gap, so traders should update their charts accordingly. A tight no-trade zone has emerged around the rollover range, and I’ll outline exactly where that is — as well as where the next breakout or breakdown could begin.
Let’s get to work.
🧭 ES Futures Trade Plan
🔹 No-Trade Zone (Roll Gap Range)
6030.75 → 5980.00
⚠️ Avoid trading inside this range. It's the core of the rollover distortion and lacks clarity.
Only look for trades above 6030.75 or below 5980.00.
🔼 Overhead Resistance (Upside Levels to Watch)
6030.75 – Must hold to continue upward
6042.50 – RTH level, also a 3-day composite POC – first upside reaction zone
6096.00 → 6122.00 – Key upside daily zone
6129.25 – Important weekly resistance
6135.00 – Naked weekly POC
6138.00 & 6139.75 – Final untested 4H levels before new ATHs
🔽 Underside Support (Key Levels for Bulls to Defend)
6021.75 – 4H level, could act as short-term support
5987.75 & 5973.00 – Untested dailies
5978.25 & 5973.00 – Potential early bounce zones (pre-breakdown)
5930.00 – Major pivot (multiple touches); reclaim this after a breakdown = squeeze setup
5910.00 – 5907.75 – 5900.25 – Wide untested weekly support zone
5886.75 – Untested 4H support
5837.75 – 200-day MA
5828.75 – Untested daily level
5817.50 – Additional zone support
5784.00 – Key daily + 100-day MA
5711.50 – Breakdown target if all the above fail
5653.00 – Historic overnight test; marks extreme downside level
⚔️ Actionable Trade Scenarios
✅ Bullish Breakout Play
If price reclaims and holds 6030.75, look to long pullbacks above that level. First upside reaction likely around 6042.50, with breakout potential toward the 6100.00–6135.00 zone.
🛑 Rollover Rejection Play
If we slip under 6021.75, minor short toward 5987.75 may be valid. Caution: this setup sits within the no-trade zone, so manage risk tightly or wait for cleaner setups.
🚨 Failed Breakdown Reclaim Long
If we trade down to 5900.25 → 5907.75 zone and then reclaim 5930.00, this is a squeeze setup worth watching.
If 5930.00 gets reclaimed after a breakdown, look to target back up toward 6000.00+.
❌ Bearish Breakdown Watch
A close below 5950.00 on the daily timeframe would shift the bias bearish. If 5900.00 fails as well, targets become 5837.75 and 5784.00. Below that, we’re in real trouble — possibly accelerating toward 5711.50.
💬 Final Notes
This is rollover week, and it’s historically sloppy. Volume is often fractured, price action becomes erratic, and fakeouts are common. Stay patient. Stay selective. Avoid the rollover box and respect the levels.
🧠 Trade the chart — not Twitter.
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Until next time — trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets.
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions
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