🎙️ Quick Note:
We’ve now had three consecutive weeks of overlapping balance and POC stacking, and it’s clear the market is coiled for a potential breakout. I’ve switched back to the continuous contract for this review, as I found that the front-month alone was missing key structural references that matter on the higher timeframes. So a few levels have changed slightly—make sure to adjust accordingly.
This review breaks down all the relevant resistance zones, support clusters, and trade scenarios that could set up early this week.
🔺 Upside Resistance Levels
5930.00 – 5934.00: Major breakout zone — daily + previous weekly value area high
5955.00: Untested daily level
5972.00 – 5982.00: Strong resistance cluster (RTH weekly + ETH monthly + daily overlap)
5999.25: Untested 4H from Globex distribution
6001.75: Key weekly resistance — a clean breakout level
🔻 Key Support Zones
5891.75: 4H support from recent bounce
5886.25: Momentum marker — key reaction zone
5869.00 – 5865.00: Support shelf with a critical weekly level at 5864.75
5828.75: Untested daily + VWAP cluster
5817.00 / 5811.00: Previously tested support — lower conviction
5784.00 – 5774.75: Untested daily + 4H liquidity pocket
5740.00: Major weekly support with a small gap above
5711.50 – 5703.50: Composite 4H/daily cluster
5653.00: Final downside marker (tested ETH daily)
🎯 Actionable Trade Scenarios
✅ Upside Breakout
Break and hold above 5934.00 triggers a push toward 5972.00–5982.00
Continued momentum through 5999.25–6001.75 = clean breakout with potential for extension
🛡️ Controlled Pullback
Hold 5891.75 or 5886.25 → reclaim momentum to push back into 5930.00+
Failure at 5886.25, but bounce at 5864.75, sets up another long attempt
⚠️ Breakdown Risk
Loss of 5864.75 = opens door to 5828.75, then 5784.00
Sub-5784.00 = extended liquidation down to 5740.00 or even 5711.50
📋 Cheat Sheet: ES Key Levels (Formatted Correctly)
🔺 Resistance
5930.00 – 5934.00 → Breakout trigger
5955.00 → Daily resistance
5972.00 – 5982.00 → High confluence zone
5999.25 → Untested 4H
6001.75 → Major weekly resistance
🔻 Support
5891.75 → 4H bounce
5886.25 → Key pivot
5869.00 – 5865.00 → Support band
5864.75 → Must-hold weekly level
5828.75 → VWAP + daily
5817.00 / 5811.00 → Tested support
5784.00 – 5774.75 → Reactive long area
5740.00 → Major weekly support
5711.50 – 5703.50 → Strong structure zone
5653.00 → ETH tested daily
🧠 Final Thoughts
This week is all about patience and reaction. We’ve built a tight coil of overlapping value, and ES is approaching the edge of that range. If we break 5934.00, that’s the signal bulls have been waiting for. If we fail to reclaim momentum above 5891.75, expect deeper rotation into the 5864.75 zone and possibly lower.
📈 Want to see how I’m managing this live in real time?
👉 Join the VICI Discord for intraday levels, trade alerts, and live breakdowns.
Ryan Bailey
VICI Trading Solutions
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