Front-Month Contract Analysis:
We’re at a serious inflection point.
After a week of chop and indecision, ES Futures are pressing into a tight, high-confluence resistance zone — right at the yearly VWAP, stacked moving averages, and multiple untested levels. The market is coiled, and the next move should be fast. Below is your detailed breakdown and the actionable plan I’ll be watching this week.
🧠 Context Overview:
We’ve bumped our head on the yearly VWAP at 5742.
The 200-day and 100-day moving averages are directly overhead.
Massive yearly POC at 6050 remains unfilled.
Friday news (Trump-China headline) may disrupt this technical structure, but we’re preparing for both outcomes.
🔍 Primary Range to Watch:
5740 – 5711
If we build value above this range → look for breakout continuation.
If we reject and stay below → we’re likely heading back to fill lower imbalances.
🔥 Upside Plan: (Breakout Continuation)
If bulls gain control:
🔹 Close above 5711–5718 = start building value in upper distribution
🔹 Watch for breakout into 5739 (4H)
🔹 Next levels above:
5753 (untested daily)
5757.75 (weekly)
5782 (weekly)
5814 (naked weekly POC)
5828 (untested daily leg)
📌 If bulls reclaim and build above 5740, these targets open up quickly.
🛡️ Downside Plan: (Rejection & Pullback)
If price stays below 5700–5711 zone:
🔻 Target 5703–5700 (major confluence zone: prev VAH + 4H)
🔻 Breakdown opens path to:
5645.75 (first support target)
5605.75 (major monthly level)
5594.00 (critical area)
5579.50 (ETH daily + 50DMA)
5566–5563 (massive weekly/daily shelf)
5553 (prev VAH + POC)
🚨 Below 5566, all bets are off — next real support doesn’t come until much lower.
⚔️ Key Actionable Zones:
✅ Potential Short Entry Area:
5703–5705 zone – stacked confluence: 4H untested + previous weekly VAH
If price tags 5703+ and fails, consider short with targets down to 5645–5605
✅ Ideal Short Trigger:
5739–5753 zone (4H + daily)
Rejection here with no acceptance = high R/R short
✅ Long Opportunity (only on reclaim):
5645.75 (first bounce zone)
5594 (watch for reclaim above 5605.75 before engaging)
Must get back above to confirm any long — don’t blindly knife catch.
⚖️ Summary Bias:
✅ Leaning short-biased as long as we remain under 5711–5718
🚨 Only flip bullish if value starts accepting above 5740+
This week is about confirmation, patience, and disciplined execution. Structure is clear — wait for price to tip its hand.
💬 Join the Community:
For real-time updates, level callouts, and access to our newest tools:
👉 Join the VICI Discord here
Trade smart. Stay sharp. And together — we conquer the markets.
Ryan Bailey
VICI Trading Solutions
Share this post