Weekend Review & What's Significant

Week of 9/29/2024

Sep 29, 2024

Hello Traders!

As you all are aware I have been absent last week from posting market insights but I wanted to make sure everyone is on track for trading the S&P 500 this week. I’ve put together a quick Weekend Review to help you stay pointed in the right direction. When I’m back, I’m planning on making some changes to bring even more value, so we can continue to conquer these markets together!

Last Week’s Recap:

To be honest, last week was a tough and choppy one. We didn’t see a single significant move of more than 0.75%, which made trading tricky. The main factor keeping price pinned seems to be JP Morgan’s options activity and a substantial amount of gamma up here, which has held the price at these levels as we approach month-end options expiration. I expect things to loosen up a bit once expiration clears and we transition into next week.

Market Overview:

The ES is starting to show the first signs of weakness we’ve seen in quite some time. While we’re still making higher highs and higher lows, the price action has shifted to a sideways drift. It’s beginning to look like the bullish rally might need a breather to pull back and find fresh buyers.

Key Resistance Levels:

There’s some resistance overhead that could present a real challenge for the bulls:

5790 & 5798 (Untested Levels)
5804.50 (Major Resistance/Line in the Sand):
This level is also the previous weekly value area high, which is key for any continuation upward. If we can get above 5804.50 and hold, we’d need to be cautious shorting any levels above this zone, as the bulls could regain full control.
Beyond 5804.50, there’s another untested level at 5813.25, which may provide a reaction, but shorting above 5804.50 is risky.

Support Levels to Watch:

If we start moving lower, we have some significant support levels to keep an eye on:

5779 (4-Hour Support):
A close below 5779 on the 4-hour chart would signal weakness and likely bring us down into the 5763.75 area, where we’ll want to see a reaction.
5763.75 (Key Support for the Move Up):
If this level breaks, it could send us into last week’s value area and possibly rotate all the way down into the 5722-5705 zone.
5690 (Must-Hold for Bulls):
Maintaining 5690 is essential for bulls to continue pushing higher. Losing this level would shift the market’s structure and momentum.
5668.75 (Weekly Support/Line in the Sand for Bears):
This is the line in the sand for bulls and bears. A break below 5668.75 would strongly favor the bears. While price can reclaim this level if it dips below, breaking and holding below would greatly shift momentum in favor of the bears.

My Thoughts Moving Forward:

Currently, I’m seeing cracks forming in the bullish rally. If the price can’t gain traction above the 5804.50 zone and support levels start breaking, we could see a broader pullback. However, the trend remains bullish until proven otherwise.

Take a look at the video below where I go into greater detail on the levels to watch and how I’m planning to play the setups this week.