S&P500 TRADING PLAN: ES FUTURES
10/23/2024 - WEDNESDAY
Hello Traders!
It seems the Bulls can’t be faded yet again! As we mentioned in yesterday’s outlook, we were starting to see cracks forming in the market, and we were prepared for a pullback. That’s exactly what happened as the ES opened down over 35 points, resting at the current leg end to the all-time highs.
The Bears tried to push below 5860, which could have shifted momentum in their favor by losing 5853, but the Bulls held strong, buying above the critical 5868 (4-Hour Level). When price finally got above 5887 (Daily Level), we saw a fast squeeze of 17 points in just 15 minutes.
We are currently in a 7-day balance area, effectively consolidating within the same range without breaking to new highs or lows. This makes it challenging to identify clear directions, but we’re still defaulting to the upside trend until proven otherwise. With no major news tomorrow, let’s focus on the key levels to watch.
NEWS
OPTIONS VOL
LEVELS
CHEATS SHEETS
WK/DAY TPO
WK / DAY
4HR
Trade Plan
As the S&P 500 continues to coil within this tight range, trend remains upward. However, after six green weeks in a row, we know the market will eventually break out of this balance. Will it be this week? That remains to be seen.
VIX Monitoring: The VIX is trending downward, and the $18.14 level will be key. If the VIX remains above this level, it could pressure the indices downward. If it breaks below, it may allow for further upside in the S&P.
Key Level at 5908:
A sustained move above 5908 (Daily Level) will be critical for further upside momentum. If we clear this level, be mindful of two untested levels—5918.75 (4-Hour) and 5923 (Daily)—which could cause a reaction and temporary pullback. If price breaks above these levels, the market will continue progressing toward the bullish imbalance.
Critical Support Zones
5887 (Daily Level):
This key level has been tested multiple times and now aligns with Monday’s POC. It serves as an important marker for being above or below, guiding the trend direction.5868 & 5860.75 (4-Hour Levels):
These levels held support, keeping the bullish structure intact. If we lose these levels, expect a quick move toward 5853.50 (4-Hour).5853.50 (Significant 4-Hour Level):
This level was previously a launching point to all-time highs. If it fails, look for a move toward 5840.75 - 5839.75 (1-Hour Cluster).
Additional Key Levels
5840.75 - 5839.75 (1-Hour Cluster):
This area also cleans up single prints on the profile. If a reaction occurs here, an immediate reclaim of 5853.50 will confirm upside continuation.5829.25 (4-Hour) / 5823.75 (Daily) / 5828 (POC):
A high-confluence zone aligning with untested POCs. If 5823.75 doesn’t hold, momentum may shift to the downside.5802 - 5798.25 (4-Hour Cluster):
This zone includes an untested daily level at 5800, making it a solid entry point for long setups. If it holds, look to reclaim 5813.25 and 5823.75 for further upside.
Bearish Case
If 5748.50 fails to hold, expect a sharp move toward the major weekly support at 5726.
5726 (Weekly Level):
This level has held several times but may not hold under heavy selling pressure.5722 (Daily Level):
Losing this level could send the market quickly toward the 5709 - 5705 zone.5709 - 5705 (4-Hour/Daily Combo):
Bulls need to reclaim 5726 quickly if this zone is tested, or the move lower may accelerate.5690 (Weekly Leg Tip):
A break below this level signals a momentum shift toward bearish sentiment.5668.75 (Major Bull/Bear Line):
Losing this critical line will fully shift momentum to the bears.5661 (Daily/Weekly Combo):
If tested, a quick reclaim of 5668.75 will be necessary to prevent further breakdowns.
Key Takeaways
Critical Support Levels: Monitor 5780, 5823.75, and 5853.50 closely for momentum shifts.
Buy Zone: The 5755.75 - 5748.50 area remains a high-probability support zone. A hold here would signal potential for another push to new all-time highs.
Bullish Bias: As long as 5853.50 holds, the bullish momentum remains intact. A break below 5823.75 will shift momentum to the downside.
Upside Targets: Watch for reactions at 5918.75 (4-Hour) and 5923 (Daily). Clearing these levels will progress the market toward resolving the bullish imbalance.
Stay sharp, follow the plan, and together, let’s conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey
Vici Trading Solutions