Morning Insight - ES
7/18/2024 - Thursday
Good Morning Traders,
Yesterday we finally had some rotation. Entering last weeks value was able to cause a rotation all the way down to the previous weekly POC. Questions is will we continue the downward slide or will the dip be bought once again? Yesterdays Daily close certainly raises some questions for us. Technically speaking we closed below the support at the leg end and can be interpreted as a loss (SEE DAILY PIC), but just barley. What does this mean for us today? Well this certainly shows a sign of weakness, However price action in ES sat at the lows all night and within yesterdays value as well as held support at the the daily leg (SEE TPO/1hr PIC). Overnight sellers were unable to continue to push price any further in the overnight session. However we have RED TAG news this morning “Unemployment Claims” which certainly could give us some volatility.
We have a few levels that we want to pay very close attention to for a continued move higher or lower
To make a move down price will have to get below and hold the significant 4hr at 5632. Below this should send us to the minor 1hr support at 5598.50. This is the same price as the 20D SMA and could provide a reaction. Under 5598.50 should take us to the next significant daily’s at 5570.25.
To make a move higher we need to get above the 4hr resistance that was made at 5656.25. This also happens to be directly in line with Yesterdays Open. If we are able to break above this price we need to monitor the daily level that was very significant yesterday which ultimately led to the smack early in the day which was also last weeks VAH 5668.75. To the upside this is our Line in the sand and a break above this level could send us into the set of untested daily and 4hr levels we have at 5684-5695. (see daily and 4hr chart for level precision.)
Lets make one thing clear. We have held the leg and by all technical standards they could push right back up to new highs, and this certainly looks possible when looking at the 4hr because the leg up on the 4hr has not been lost, so please don’t discount this possibility.
HOWEVER
Not to bias but from a personal perspective I would be very careful looking for new highs. I think we could continue to traverse downward BUT I do think a pop to resistance (5684-95) / the support that was lost is def possible. The key here will be to watch for our Significant levels and if price can continue upwards or if she break lower to the downside. It will be very important to stay nimble and open minded / non bias today. I 1000% think money could be made both ways today so please dont get stuck in one mindset.
Trade Safe today
Ryan Bailey
NEWS
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