FREE ALPHA FRIDAY!! = Morning Outlook - ES Futures

9/12/2024 - Friday

Sep 13, 2024

Happy Friday Traders

Its a very special day for all subscribers. We are doing Free Alpha Friday so everyone can get a peek behind the curtain in real time and see how we prepare for the days trading session.

Yesterday played out exactly as anticipated. When we hit our significant daily levels pre market at 5578/80.50, they triggered strong reactions, pulling the market down to our 4-hour level at 5543.75. These levels were highlighted in the pre-market outlook and provided great opportunities as expected.

The ES then pushed above 5567, holding our significant level, found acceptance and eventually surged past the 5580.50 daily level, leading to an extreme breakout of over 40 points. This rally took us directly to 5606.25, another Daily level pointed out pre-market, where we saw a significant short reaction that brought us back down to 5578, providing another immediate bounce only to recover what it lost in a matter of minutes.

Overnight, we've drifted upward, holding at the 5598-5606.25 daily levels. These are the support zones that in August pushed us to the local highs at 5670. They are extremely important for price to be above for an immediate continued upside move. Without any major news on the horizon, we need to be cautious—fading low-volume trend days can be risky. We've already reached the previous weekly value area high and are currently sitting there, with potential upside targets, including a gap fill and an untested weekly level.

Check out the video for a deeper dive into these levels. Below is today’s actionable ES Trade Plan, outlining specific setups I’m watching.

Be careful, trade smart, and together, we’ll conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey
VICI Trading Solutions

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ES Daily Trade Plan:

Due to our current trade location and the overnight upside drift, I do not have any high-quality setups to initiate immediately. However, here are the setups I’m interested in:

For Longs:

5564.75-5567.00 (4-Hour/Daily Combination):

This area has strong confluence, as well as the location of the previous day’s POC. I’d like to buy this zone, with first targets around 5578. Upon reclaiming 5580.50, I would add full size and trail the trade higher on a sustained push.

Lower Buy at 5532 (Significant Daily/Weekly Level):

If we flush down to this level, I’d be cautious and only bid with half size. I’d look for a reclaim of Thursday’s low and a move back above 5543.75 (4-Hour) to show acceptance, before putting on full size. Targets would be 5564.75 and beyond.

For Shorts: